“India and China are improving by leaps and bounds and it will be their chess players who will lead the revolution of the XXI century”
— Judit Polgar
The Indo-Pacific region as a sure-short contested power, security and resource area, constantly has been put in the news. Will China permit India to share power with it in the region, given that China’s abundant resources allow the Chinese government to avoid engaging in geopolitical matters and that it is independent of any nation, whereas India is dependent on superpowers due to its high labour costs and dearth of resources and manufacturing “know-how”? Will India be able to convince China to resolve the border disputes, which will enhance their cooperation in the region? The unfolding of the future of Chinese and Indian discourse in the Indo-Pacific Region will be enhanced as per the changing foreign policies of both countries. Since both of them are emerging and power-seeking nations, several questions might churn the readers’ and researchers’ minds as to, how will India and China manage to cooperate in the era of fragmented international politics.
The three “Asian Giants” in the Asian continent have emerged as the most powerful and the most pertinent “go-to” countries for the world and the Asian countries in general. The competitive ground for Russia, India, and China in the field of economic trade, regional and territorial security, and the expansion of influence with power maximization has proved quite ingenuine for others. There is a constant visible, yet invisible tussle prevailing in the region, with the most evident being that between India and China. Both China and India are aiming to become the “Asian messiah” for the smaller countries in the region via trade, commerce, culture and civilization, maritime security and aspects of greater connectivity in the ‘Indian Ocean Region’. China has excelled as a determined force in the South China Sea region, trying to secure its relations with countries of the ASEAN and smaller island groups. However, due to territorial controversies revolving between India and China, there seems to be a constant clash for power maximization by China in the South Asian subcontinent as well.
The ‘Indo-Pacific’, rather than being a region, has become more of an ideological war between India and China. It came as a counter-strategy by India to counter China’s increasing involvement in the South Asian region. Consistently, China has proved to sequence its ‘String of Pearls’ strategic combat in the Indian Ocean Region. Due to China’s perceived danger within the subcontinent, India has been forced to defend its territorial sovereignty. As a result, it has been referred to as part of the Indo-Pacific security alliance, which united nations bordering both the Indian and Pacific oceans. For India, the Indian Ocean Region is something it resonates with, because of its trade and strategic significance. The Indian Ocean is India’s ocean, according to KM Panikkar, who also describes it as having great significance because of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” and the “Maritime Silk Road” route. As a result, India’s alliance with 35 other countries in the region, including the USA, Indonesia, Philippines, and Australia, has accelerated to counter Chinese trade and economic forces in the region.
Is Civilizational Growth contributing to the clash between India and China in the Indo-Pacific Region?
The most perplexing aspect of China-India tensions in the Indo-Pacific region and the geopolitical arena is British colonialism in India. It continues to force China to believe that India is somewhat on the Western side even after independence and, as such, cannot be trusted. This causes a drifting effect between India and China’s position to deteriorate year after year. China and India have seemingly grown in the international arena based on the civilizational acumen that they carry – being the oldest and most prominent civilizations worldwide. This also comes as a backdrop to the divide between the Global North and Global South, wherein both India and China are viewed as leaders of the Global South, however, India grabbing more attention. As was said by Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, that, “It is the habit of every aggressor nation to claim that it is acting on the defensive”.
The 2020 Galwan Valley attack has made India think at least twice about China as a reliable neighbour, which has significantly paved the way for increased military cooperation between India and the USA. But the increasing border tensions between the two have made China shift towards India’s aggressor Pakistan, while India tilting towards China’s nerve, the USA. There remains a trust deficit on both countries’ ends, which opens the platform for tilting towards external powers, instead of immediate neighbours. This un-favouring tilt of both countries has devised the way forward for securing sovereignty and developing newer foreign relations with security pacts and trade deals to counter the hungry population within both. It would be amusing to know when American commentator and author Thomas Friedman said, “When I was growing up, my parents told me, ‘Finish your dinner! People in China and India are starving.’ I tell my daughters, ‘Finish your homework. People in India and China are starving for your job”.
It was not until the time when China decided to spread its Belt and Road Initiative from South Asia to Europe via Africa due to India’s souring relations with its neighbours in the region, which propelled the idea of Indo-Pacific. 2018 was the turning point when Narendra Modi, at the Shangrila Dialogue, exclaimed that the Indian conception of the Indo-Pacific, which spans both the Indian and Pacific Oceans in conjunction with Japan’s, stretches geographically, from Africa to the Americas. India has gone to considerable lengths to emphasise the Indo-Pacific as an inclusive construct for the entire region, even though the US does not view China as a part of it.
It should be taken into consideration that countries within this region share some common problems and aim to find a collective solution, as they are prone to natural disasters; lack resources; deal with internal conflicts; and are facing governance challenges. However, China, in the region, comes as a dominating force to counter these problems and provides aid to most of the countries, which also poses a threat to India’s “Big Brother” reputation. This does not remain frozen here as the Taiwan contention widens the India and China, as India does not support China’s One China strategy and has been constantly voicing out for Taiwan’s Independence, along with that of Hong Kong, as both these territories are strategically very important for India’s ‘Necklace of Diamond’ Strategy against China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ and String of Pearls.
“But can we say that the traditional containment policy of both India and China can help them regenerate dominance in the region, without a clash?”
Deciphering China’s view of the Indo-Pacific –
China has had a long history of ongoing and intensifying conflicts with the Indo-Pacific region’s “technological superpowers,” Japan and the United States, which have superior economic standards across the globe. What becomes eminent in the Indo-Pacific region is the growing tension between India and China due to India’s increasing tilt towards the USA. This, as a foreboding light, has made China denounce India’s involvement in the Indo-Pacific region to lessen the influence of the United States of America in Asian nations by overcoming its dominance in culture and ideology and thwarting India’s civilisational growth and influence. Ironically, most Southeast Asian nations are strengthening their economic connections with China rather than the United States. China has the greatest air force, navy, and coast guard in the world. This development is surprising to many in the Indo-Pacific area.
As a consequence of cutting down on India’s increasing engagement with the countries of the ASEAN and those within the South China Sea region, China has started building warfighting infrastructures near the Indo-Pacific region and in the South China Sea as well with the construction of airfields, artificial islands and various military bases along the borders of small island nations in the region via increased economic cooperation with them, eventually surrounding the weaker nations in a “debt trap”. The surfing over India-ASEAN and the question of China in the region, their cultural diplomacy and political ideological influences play a huge role. Where Laos is also a communist country and is significantly increasing its linkages with India, comes as a countering force to India and the USA’s endeavours of securing the region. The ASEAN countries’ foreign ministers have been working tirelessly to build a comprehensive and effective bilateral cooperation mechanism with China. This mechanism is expected to enhance the “China-ASEAN Free Trade” and support a wide range of strategic partnerships in areas such as trade, investment, digital transformation, connectivity, clean energy, and climate change response.
Sustaining this idea, China has developed the ‘Blue-Dragon’ Strategy in the Indo-Pacific, consuming Sri Lank and Taiwan as its two “unsinkable aircraft carriers”. It comes as an external and bilateral threat towards India, as India and Sri Lanka have managed to sustain equitable and effective bilateral cooperation due to India’s financial help towards Sri Lanka during the 2022 bankruptcy financial crisis. China’s String of Pearls strategy and the containment of trade deals of China with the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka has turned into another controversial concern for India, and the US as well, as it provides the Sri Lankan Navy to secure its territorial waters. Unknowingly, China has been initiating a “water blackmail” tool mechanism to manipulate and pressure lower riparian countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, against India’s Indo-Pacific plan, to navigate into China’s policies and actions that do not correspond with the needs of the South Asian subcontinent.
This does not stay limited to the continent, as China has initiated the building of military bases in Africa as well where India has started competing with China in terms of investments. To enable the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to project and maintain military force over longer distances, the PRC is working to build up global logistics and basing infrastructure. It conceals the real reason for its overseas sites while abusing commercial agreements at host nation ports to support military operations. For example, before they formally established a facility in Djibouti in 2017, PRC officials said for many years that China would never want to establish overseas outposts.
The iffy Way Forward –
Where would this race land in both India and China? In a recent conversation, both countries are bolstering their bilateral ties based on – mutual trust, mutual respect, mutual understanding, mutual accomplishment, and mutual accommodation. These five factors can help India and China work together in the fields of trade and investment as China is geographically a resource-rich country, while India has one of the biggest manufacturing sectors worldwide. An effective collaboration between both can sideline the rising “Eurocentrism” in the Indo-Pacific Region due to the USA’s infringement, and devise a potential way out for bringing back the civilizational growth in the region, putting both India and China as primary stakeholders, while bringing on board countries like Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia as secondary stakeholders. Cooperation between these emerging economies can carry forward a potential “India-China–ASEAN Free Trade Agreement”.
The Indian Ocean Region and the Indo-Pacific Region have been prone to the problems of piracy, illegal smuggling and fishing, and human trafficking, which have mostly secured their entry via the sea routes in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This can create a platform for both India and China to deliver advancements in having a secured maritime territory against these factors, as they also contribute to increased migration and illegal refugees, putting the territorial sovereignty of states under long-term threat from foreign invaders. Speaking tough with China does not entail dispatching warships to the South China Sea to refute Beijing’s claims; rather, it entails persuading China’s leadership of the political and economic consequences of accepting international norms and regulations. However, it must be noted that,
“Cooperation between both is not a piece of cake, rather if done, has the potential to become a cherry on the cake”.
References –
“Power Shifts in the Indo-Pacific”, 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, Australian Government
Sagar, N., “China and India in the Indo-Pacific”, O.P. Jindal Global Institution of Eminence, 16 September, 2020
https://jgu.edu.in/blog/2020/09/16/china-and-india-in-the-indo-pacific/
Mendis P., & Luszczykiewicz, A., “China’s ‘blue dragon’ strategy in the Indo-Pacific”, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 9 October, 2023
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-blue-dragon-strategy-in-the-indo-pacific/
D’Souza, S. M., “India’s Spurning Strategy Toward China: Contestation in Indo-Pacific”, The Diplomat, 21 June, 2024
https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/indias-spurning-strategy-toward-china-contestation-in-indo-pacific/
Author
Medhya Gupta