With Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, the 2024 US election has taken an unprecedented turn, leaving the Democratic Party in a state of flux and adding to the uncertainty surrounding the nation’s political landscape. This turmoil is heightened by the dramatic assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic frontrunner. As election day draws closer, the implications for India come into sharper focus, particularly concerning foreign policy and the Indian-American community.

The Assassination Attempt on Trump:

Former President Donald Trump survived a shocking assassination attempt while speaking in Pennsylvania, an incident that has left an indelible mark on the election landscape. Trump’s defiant response, including a fist pump as he was escorted off the stage, solidified his image as an American hero in the eyes of many. This positions him as a resilient figure in US politics, and history now counts him among the few presidents to have survived such an attempt.

Trump’s Vice Presidential Pick:

Adding to the drama, Trump has chosen JD Vance, a US Senator and author, as his running mate. Vance’s Indian-American wife, Usha Chilukuri, brings an intriguing dimension to the ticket, potentially attracting Indian-American voters. This unexpected choice underscores the importance placed on diverse constituencies. The Republican National Convention (RNC) formally nominated Trump, who accepted with a message of unity laced with criticism of the Biden administration. This solidifies Trump’s position as the Republican standard-bearer.

Biden’s Withdrawal and Harris’ likely Nomination:

On the Democratic side, Biden’s campaign faced challenges, including health concerns and criticism over the handling of the Trump assassination attempt. His subsequent COVID-19 diagnosis and quarantine further complicated matters. Many Democrats urged him to step aside, and speculation mounted over a potential replacement.

In his withdrawal statement, Biden highlighted his administration’s achievements, including economic progress and landmark appointments like that of the first African American woman to the Supreme Court. He concluded that stepping down was in the best interest of the country and his party.

With Biden’s exit, attention turns to Kamala Harris, the expected Democratic nominee. Harris, the current Vice President, brings a unique background as the first Black and South Asian American woman on a major party ticket. Her nomination adds a historic dimension to the election.

The Impact on India and the Indian-American Community:

The US election outcome will have significant implications for India, and the Harris likely-nomination adds an interesting layer to consider:

1. Indian-American Representation: Kamala Harris’ nomination as the Democratic candidate is a landmark moment for the Indian-American community. Her mixed heritage, with roots in India and Jamaica, resonates strongly with the Indian diaspora in the US. This representation at the highest level of US politics is unprecedented and could galvanize Indian-American voters.
2. Foreign Policy Approach: Harris’ foreign policy approach is expected to differ from Trump’s. She may prioritize human rights and democratic values, which could influence her stance on India. Harris is likely to continue the Biden administration’s support for India’s role in the Indo-Pacific region and its Quad partnership.
3. Immigration and Diversity: Harris has been a vocal advocate for immigrant rights and diversity. Her presidency could bring a more welcoming approach to immigration, benefiting Indian immigrants. This contrasts with Trump’s hardline stance, which has raised concerns among Indian immigrants and fueled anti-immigrant sentiments.
4. Energy and Environmental Policies: Harris is likely to continue Biden’s push for green energy and address climate change, which aligns with India’s renewable energy goals. Trump, on the other hand, favors a pro-oil stance that could hinder India’s transition to cleaner energy sources.
5. Middle East and South Asia Policies: Harris’ approach to the Middle East and South Asia may differ from Trump’s. She might take a more balanced stance on Israel-Palestine and engage more actively with India on regional issues. Trump’s policies on Iran and Afghanistan have had mixed effects on India’s interests in the region.
6. Ukraine, Russia, and China Relations: Harris is likely to maintain a critical view of India-Russia ties, similar to Biden. On China, she may continue Trump-like tough trade policies, benefiting India. However, her approach to Taiwan and the South China Sea could be more assertive than Trump’s.
7. Human Rights and Democracy: Harris, a strong advocate for human rights and democracy, is expected to press India on these issues. This contrasts with Trump, who is less likely to prioritize them. Harris’ focus on democratic values could shape her administration’s messaging on issues like the Pannun case.

As the US election drama unfolds, the relationship between the world’s oldest and largest democracies enters uncharted territory. With Kamala Harris as the likely Democratic nominee, the Indian-American community has a powerful representative on the national stage. Her potential presidency offers a unique set of opportunities and challenges for India, contrasting with a Trump administration’s approach. Regardless of the outcome, the election will have significant implications for foreign policy and the Indian diaspora, underscoring the importance of effective diplomacy and engagement in the months ahead.